Stock Research With Claude AI

1Research/
2  AAPL/
3    Business Overview.md
4    Industry Scan.md
5    Financial Deep Dive.md
6    Moat Analysis.md
7    Management Review.md
8    Valuation Check.md
9    Bear Case.md
10    Earnings/
11      Q4 2025.md
12      Q1 2026.md
13    Decision Log.md
14  MSFT/
15    Business Overview.md
16    ...

1# Research Rules
2
3## Role
4You are a long-term equity analyst covering this company.
5
6## Source Discipline
7- Base ALL factual claims on documents in the project (uploaded filings, transcripts, reports).
8- For every metric, KPI, or factual statement, cite the source:
9  `[filename, page/section]: "exact quote" → interpretation`
10- If a claim cannot be sourced from uploaded documents, state:
11  "Not found in available filings."
12- Never fill gaps with training data or general knowledge.
13
14## Data Recency
15- Always prefer the most recent filing period available.
16- If using older data, flag it: "(Note: using FY2023 data - more recent not available)"
17
18## Output Standards
19- Clear section headers, short paragraphs, plain English.
20- Mark inferences explicitly: "(inferred from [source])"
21- Never present inferences as facts.

1Analyze the company's business model using the uploaded documents.
2
3Cover the following in order:
4
51. **What the company does** - core products/services in plain language
62. **Revenue model** - how money flows in (subscriptions, licensing, hardware, services, etc.)
73. **Customer base** - who pays, concentration risk, enterprise vs consumer mix
84. **Geographic breakdown** - revenue by region, key markets
95. **Business segments** - segment-level revenue and margin if reported
106. **Key dependencies** - suppliers, platforms, regulations the business relies on
11
12Cite every metric from filings.

1Produce an industry analysis for this company's primary market using the uploaded
2documents and any industry context available.
3
4Cover:
5
61. **Industry structure** - fragmented vs consolidated, number of meaningful competitors
72. **Growth drivers** - what expands the TAM (secular trends, regulatory tailwinds, adoption curves)
83. **Competitive dynamics** - how companies compete (price, differentiation, scale, distribution)
94. **Structural constraints** - what limits growth (regulation, capital intensity, cyclicality, commoditization)
105. **Value chain position** - where this company sits and whether that position is defensible
116. **Key competitors** - 3-5 direct competitors with brief positioning comparison
12
13End with 5 bullet points: the single most important structural insight for a long-term investor.

1Perform a detailed financial analysis using all available annual and quarterly filings.
2
3For each section, provide multi-year trends (minimum 3 years where available):
4
51. **Revenue trajectory** - growth rates, organic vs inorganic, segment trends
62. **Margin analysis** - gross, operating, and net margins; trajectory and drivers of change
73. **Cash flow quality** - FCF vs net income, capex intensity, stock-based compensation as % of revenue
84. **Capital allocation** - buybacks, dividends, M&A, R&D spend; track record of returns on deployed capital
95. **Balance sheet health** - net debt/EBITDA, interest coverage, debt maturity schedule, cash reserves
106. **Working capital** - DSO, DPO, inventory trends; any red flags
117. **Unit economics** (if available) - CAC, LTV, retention, ARPU
12
13Flag any divergence between earnings and cash flow. Highlight accounting choices that
14inflate or obscure economic reality.

1Assess this company's competitive advantages (moat) using evidence from the uploaded documents.
2
3Evaluate each moat source - rate as Strong / Moderate / Weak / Absent:
4
51. **Switching costs** - what makes it painful for customers to leave?
6   Evidence from retention rates, contract structures, integration depth.
72. **Network effects** - does the product become more valuable with more users?
8   Evidence from user growth vs engagement metrics.
93. **Cost advantages** - structural cost edge from scale, process, or geography?
10   Evidence from margin comparisons vs competitors.
114. **Intangible assets** - brands, patents, licenses, regulatory approvals?
12   Evidence from pricing power, patent portfolio, regulatory barriers.
135. **Efficient scale** - does the company serve a market too small for new entrants?
14   Evidence from market share stability, competitor entry/exit history.
15
16Then assess **moat trajectory**: Widening / Stable / Narrowing - with evidence.
17
18End with: "Moat summary" - 3 sentences on the overall defensibility of the business.

1Evaluate management quality and alignment using proxy statements, annual reports,
2earnings transcripts, and any available filings.
3
4Cover:
5
61. **Capital allocation track record** - historical ROE, ROIC vs WACC;
7   quality of M&A (write-downs?), buyback timing (repurchased at what valuations?)
82. **Insider ownership** - CEO/CFO/board holdings as % of net worth (if estimable)
9   and recent insider transactions
103. **Compensation structure** - what metrics drive bonuses? Are incentives aligned
11   with long-term shareholder value or short-term EPS targets?
124. **Guidance credibility** - compare past guidance to actual results across
13   multiple quarters; pattern of sandbagging, missing, or hitting?
145. **Communication quality** - are earnings calls forthright about problems
15   or do they deflect? Do they acknowledge mistakes?
166. **Tenure and succession** - how long has current leadership been in place?
17   Any succession risk?
18
19Rate overall management quality: Excellent / Good / Adequate / Concerning

1Provide a valuation assessment using available financial data. This is a
2sanity check, not a precise model.
3
4Cover:
5
61. **Relative valuation** - current P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF vs:
7   - Own 5-year historical average
8   - 3-5 direct peers (name them)
9   - Sector median
102. **Growth-adjusted view** - PEG ratio, EV/EBITDA-to-growth
113. **Simple intrinsic value estimate** - reverse DCF: what growth rate is
12   the current price implying? Is that reasonable given historical performance?
134. **Margin of safety** - at current price, what needs to go right?
14   What is priced in vs what is not?
155. **Scenario framing**:
16   - Bull case (top-quartile outcome): fair value range
17   - Base case (continuation of trends): fair value range
18   - Bear case (structural deterioration): fair value range
19
20State all assumptions explicitly. Flag where data is insufficient.

1Write a rigorous bear case for this company. Assume you are short and need
2to convince a skeptical investor committee.
3
4Structure:
5
61. **Thesis killer** - the single most likely way a long-term holder loses money
72. **Structural weaknesses** - parts of the business model that are fragile,
8   commoditizing, or dependent on favorable conditions continuing
93. **Assumptions at risk** - what the bull case takes for granted that might not hold
104. **Permanent impairment scenarios** - what could structurally destroy
11   earning power (not temporary dips - permanent damage)
125. **Hidden balance sheet risk** - off-balance-sheet liabilities, pension gaps,
13   lease obligations, contingent liabilities
146. **Management risk** - where could leadership hurt shareholders
15   (empire building, misaligned incentives, poor capital allocation)?
167. **What would prove the bear right** - specific, observable triggers
17   (e.g., "margin compression below X% for 2+ consecutive quarters")
18
19Be specific. Use numbers from filings, not vague concerns.

1Analyze the most recent quarterly earnings using the newly uploaded documents.
2Compare against prior guidance and historical results.
3
4## Section 1: Guidance vs Reality
5- What management previously guided → cite prior filing
6- What actually happened → cite new report
7- Beat / Met / Missed - quantify the delta
8- Management's explanation → exact quote
9- Has this explanation been used before? Check prior transcripts.
10- Judgment: is the explanation supported by data or hand-waving?
11
12## Section 2: KPI Trends (Year-over-Year)
13For each key KPI:
14- Current quarter value (cite source)
15- Same quarter last year (cite source)
16- Absolute and percentage change
17- What the trend signals
18- Whether it supports or contradicts management's narrative
19
20## Section 3: What Actually Changed?
21- What materially improved vs last year?
22- What materially deteriorated?
23- What is new (strategy shifts, pricing changes, restructuring)?
24- What did NOT change despite management emphasis?
25
26## Summary
27- Execution vs expectations: Improving / Stable / Deteriorating
28- Management credibility: Strong / Mixed / Weak
29- Business momentum: Accelerating / Steady / Decelerating

1I want to record an investment decision. Ask me the following questions
2one at a time, then compile the entry:
3
41. **Action**: Buy / Sell / Add / Trim / Hold (and size if applicable)
52. **Date**: When is this decision being made?
63. **Price**: Current share price at time of decision
74. **Thesis summary**: In 2-3 sentences, why am I taking this action?
85. **Key assumptions**: What 2-3 things must go right for this to work?
96. **What would change my mind**: Specific, measurable conditions that
10   would cause me to reverse this decision
117. **Thesis status**: Is the original investment thesis intact, evolving,
12   or broken?
138. **Confidence level**: High / Medium / Low - and why?
14
15Format as a dated entry using this template:
16
17## YYYY-MM-DD - [ACTION] @ $[PRICE]
18
19**Thesis:** [summary]
20
21**Key assumptions:**
22- [assumption 1]
23- [assumption 2]
24- [assumption 3]
25
26**I'm wrong if:** [conditions]
27
28**Thesis status:** [Intact / Evolving / Broken]
29**Confidence:** [High / Medium / Low] - [reason]